Probabilistic Reasoning in CBT : EXAMPLE

Situation:

Alex, a 28-year-old marketing executive, is very anxious about giving a presentation at work. This presentation is a crucial part of a project he's been working on for months. Alex thinks, "I'll mess up, everyone will think I'm bad at my job, and I'll get fired."

**Steps:**

1. **Identify and Question Thoughts**:

   - **Therapist:** "How likely is it that you'll forget your words completely?" 

   - **Alex:** "Probably 80%."

   - **Therapist:** "How likely is it that everyone will judge you badly for that?"

   - **Alex:** "Maybe 90%."

2. **Gather Evidence**:

   - **For Alex's Fear:**

"I once forgot my words in college, and some people laughed."

   - **Against Alex's Fear:** 

     - "I've given smaller talks without problems."

     - "Most people are polite and don't notice small mistakes."

     - "I've never been fired for making a mistake."

     - "A colleague made mistakes last week, and no one cared."

3. **Reevaluate Probabilities**:

   - **Forgetting Words:** "Maybe 30%."

   - **Being Judged Badly:** "Probably 20%."

   - **Losing Job:** "Close to 0%."

4. **Test in Real Life**:

   - **Practice Presentation:** 

Alex gives small talk to friends. They don't react negatively even if Alex stumbles.

5. **Create Balanced Thoughts**:

   - "It's unlikely I'll forget my words. Even if I do, most people won't notice or care. My job isn't dependent on one presentation."

**Outcome**:

Alex gives the work presentation with only minor mistakes. As the presentation progresses, Alex feels a sense of relief and accomplishment. He realizes that the fear was exaggerated and feels much less anxious about public speaking in the future.

This example shows how probabilistic reasoning in CBT helps reduce anxiety by challenging and changing distorted thoughts, which are unrealistic or exaggerated beliefs that can lead to anxiety. 😊